Yesterday was the national (as well as for the City (CABA) and Province (PBA), the two most populous and politically important jurisdictions) primary of Argentina, the ‘primarias, abiertas, simultáneas y obligatorias’ or PASO system used officially to set coalition lists and candidates for the real election in October but also serving as a sort of formalized poll that drives the lead up to the real election.
The Primary is one of the more unfortunate surviving legacies of Kirchnerism - designed flagrantly as a way for the Kirchners to strong arm their political coalition and control lists, it has mostly backfired on Peronism since its introduction, with the only true high profile win the 2019 PASO that was more a rejection of the Macri administration than anything else. Cristina Kirchner has generally rejected open primaries in favor of using the polling as a sign of strength, meaning in Peronism it has been used historically less to set lists and more to capture dissented voters (as with the figure of Juan Grabois here) and only settle true conflicts as a last resort.
Despite it being used as a national show of strength, the primary has very little national implication by itself - it purges the general election of unlimited third parties by banning any candidate who gets under 1.5%, beyond that it is mainly used to determine what candidate and list will represent what ticket, with list formations still a result of inner party negotiations in the end. Only the center-right Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) and the left/trotskyist Frente de Izquierda (FdI) take it seriously for this purpose.
We are now in a position where the top three candidates are separated by 3% total with high absenteeism, with the extreme anti-system candidate the most voted for candidate across the country. The libertarian far-right’s support cannot be considered completely ideological either, as Milei is clearly benefiting from a protest vote willing to split for more progressive or establishment options down ballot.
Winners
Javier Milei
I've avoided talking about Milei as much as possible primary because I find him annoying as shit, and also because until today it looked like all signs were that while he represented a real problem, he hit his ceiling under a series of scandals, increasing media hostility, and the inability of him influencing and provincial or down ballot elections.
Enough has been written about what he stands for, a combination of the most crude, fundamentalist libertarianism solely on economic issues combined with retrograde social policies, authoritarian leanings, and sexism and homophobia, that I don't need to go into details. His ideological base is made up of libertarians, Vox and Bolsonaro fans, Evangelicals, and apologists (if not outright supporters) of the last dictatorship. Beyond that however, his success mostly comes down to the fact that under the current economic crisis and political polarization, the idea of burning it all to the ground appeals to about a third of the electorate.
Milei was the most voted candidate yesterday with approximately 30% of the vote, a third of the electorate, consistently across the country even where he previously registered little support and where his endorsed candidates got humiliated. He took as many votes - if not more - from the government's coalition, Union por la Patria (UxP) as he did the right. Although a third of registered voters chose to not vote at all, it appears Milei benefitted from previously blank ballots on provincal elections.
Suddenly no longer only viable in greater Buenos Aires, Milei has now completely changed the strategy for both major coaltions going forward. This doesn't mean Milei is favored to win in October, but it does make him favorite to advance to the runoff, which is guaranteed to poison the discourse going forward. Patricia Bullrich’s team, the winners of the ‘center’ right coalition yesterday, can't hide their joy at the thought of working with Milei and the nightmare scenario of a Bullrich vs Milei runoff just got one step closer. In which case, he already won.
Mauricio Macri
The former President is still widely discredited and unpopular, and will struggle in his ambition to make a political comeback directly. He even failed to fully capitalize by shying away from explicitly endorsing Bullrich.
But the ex-President successfully flexed his muscle over JxC, in particular the conservative Republican Proposal (PRO) party he founded that continues to dominate both JxC internal politics and the city of Buenos Aires. Bullrich was clearly his candidate, he humiliated his ally turned rival Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in boosting her, even if she ends up less under his control than he would hope. He got his cousin Jorge Macri installed as the all but guaranteed next Mayor of Buenos Aires, his close ally Rogelio Fregerio is in pole position to be Governor of Entre Rios, and even his attempts to work more closely with Milei came closer yesterday. He remains appealing to only a fifth of the country, but the media will make sure to remind us that Macri is the real winner today.
Axel Kicillof
The one bright side of UxP, Peronism, and Kirchnerism was the performance of Buenos Aires governor Kicillof, who continues to be the best hope for a furure progressive Peronism despite his own aversion to Peronist party politics (he was technically independent and only joined the PJ after being elected governor).
With over 36% of the votes, Kicillof was the most voted candidate even compared to the combined JxC vote who bled support to the Libertarians, and while he is still vulnerable in October at this margin, as PBA does not have a runoff, he could be the one Peronist to benefit from the split on the right. Furthermore, he outperformed the combined votes of Massa and Grabois in PBA, meaning he has been able to partially retain the votes Peronism lost federally to both the libertarians and dissident Peronists.
Kicillof continues to be the sole figure who is able to capture Cristina Kirchner’s core voters and grow on them, and while he is a polarizing figure himself who is still in danger for the real election, he continues to have momentum even as the right tries to pin insecurity on him (not helped but his own security minister.)
Losers
Horacio Rodriguez Larreta
The Mayor of Bueno Aires had everything going for him going into this election cycle, the money, the media clout, and the support of the elite. As the head of the richest and most powerful district in the country, he could buy allies, had direct visibility to PRO’s most important voter core in the city, and was increasingly close to the leadership of the Radical Civic Union (UCR), the other most important shareholder of JxC.
Instead, despite some provincial victories against Bullrich, he floundered in the face of polarization, falling out with Macri and his biggest loyalists, alienating the right wing of the coalition and hit the wall in the center both due to the selection of his former ally Massa as Peronism’s candidate and the rejection of JxC to align with the centrist Peronism of Schiaretti in Cordoba.
With 11% of votes, Larreta was convincingly defeated by Bullrich in the JxC and closer to Grabois than Massa. His candidate and list also lost in PBA and in CABA his covert attempts to undermine Jorge Macri with the UCR came short. Overall a total failure for the Mayor.
Peronism / Unidad por la Patria
The collapse could have been even worse, but the results speak for themselves - this is the worst primary result for Peronism and another low for the Partido Justicialista, who suddenly no longer seem inevitable. The weak showing in northwest and Patagonian provinces in particular has left the PJ suddenly with a floor of the quarter of the electorate, a record low. Never write off Peronism - the movement knows how to reinvent itself when the time comes, but UxP looks to have finished the primary in third place at the federal level, an unacceptable result even if within the margin of error.
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner
CFK has been the most important political figure in the country for two decades now, and while she was incorrectly buried after 2015, even without the attempts of the judiciary and media to send her to prison, this might be the end of her direct political power. Even if she somehow escapes the lawfare that will double down under the next right wing government, she’s older and more burnt out at this point, with direct support base closer to a quarter than a third of the country at this point. She is still the most important political figure for the working class of the country, but the youngest voters no longer have the same memories of the successes of the Kirchner administrations and this latest government she was a part of only continued to see the erosion of working class wages.
She accurately saw that the primary would be a race of thirds and her base in the Buenos Aires conurbano let her see Milei as a valid threat, but so far she doesn’t seem to see a way out of this - for one it does not appear to be Massa, who she backed to be the front runner he no longer convincingly is. If Peronism can retain PBA in October, “Kirchnerism” will retain a base to regrow from, but as she says herself, it is time for the next generation to take the lead.
Juntos por el Cambio
The main opposition party still seems likely to take back power in the spring, and many of their ideas have already won. But they continue to fail to truly take advantage of the economic crisis and a weak government, and end the primary in a technical tie with UxP. If more than half of Argentines reject Peronism right now, it appears they haven’t forgotten the Macri years and do not see this as an appealing alternative, preferring even the nihilism of Milei.
Union Civica Radical
This was supposed to be the election the Radical Civic Union, or UCR, stepped out of the PRO’s shadow and take a more assertive role in JxC. The centrist party and historic national home of democratic anti-Peronism had found an ally in Larreta in moving on from Macri and providing a more humane face to the center right.
Instead the modern UCR continues to be a non-factor at the national level - although Bullrich’s VP Petri is nominally a Radical, he comes from the most reactionary wing of Mendozan Radicalism with more ties to the media than the national party. Martin Lousteau’s Evolucion failed to knock out the Macri family and PRO from the anti-Peronist heartland of CABA, even with the covert support of Larreta and many capital Peronists who tactically voted for him. And Gerardo Morales, the national head of the UCR, despite his strong armed response to protests in his home province of Jujuy that received praise from across JxC, failed to move Larreta forward in any way, with the Larreta/Morales ticket unable to even get over 20% in Jujuy.
Yet again the only consistent thing the UCR seems to offer JxC is anti-Peronism, and even if they become part of the ruling coalition soon, they will continue to be junior partners to an increasingly radicalized PRO under Bullrich. And if Milei - a figure who hates the Radicals as much as he does Peronists - wins, it will be curious how the party survives.
The Left
This primary was a disaster for all sectors left of center. While Kicillof outperforming the national ticket and Grabois performed respectively enough to show that Massa cannot fully ignore the Kirchnerist left or the informal sector workers representing by the professor and the Evita Movement, it’s clear the remaining campaign will continue to marginalize the left with the fear of Milei now taking center stage.
The space to the left of UxP failed completely at capitalizing on the government’s failures and increase in poverty, with the Trotskyist left represented by the Workers Left Front (FIT) only capturing 2.6% of votes, less than their result in 2015 or 2019. Except for some relatively strength in the Northwest, they have shown zero growth beyond their core base and the working class votes that increasingly reject Peronism are either staying home or turning to Milei to blow it all up.
Whether or not you agree with the Trotskyist strategy of refusing to work with Kirchnerism or other Peronist forces, and regardless of their valid criticisms of the government, it is clear that the majority of working class Argentines, especially the most vulnerable, do not see them as offering a serious alternative.
Argentina
Regardless of what happens in October, the next few years will be ugly.
Non-Losers
Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa
For Pato Bullrich, a candidate as scary as Milei in some ways (and perhaps more dangerous) although far less unhinged, this was on its surface a very successful night. The former Security Minister’s flirtation with the far right and hardline positions were absolved by her base, she humiliated Larreta and anyone hoping for dialogue with moderates, and the window has opened for her dream runoff scenario in October against Milei where she can agree with the “Libertarian” on most issues while still easily coming across as the lesser of evils, and at least on paper should be able to capture the majority of Larreta and Massa voters in such scenario.
Her path to that however is more dangerous than she may anticipate. She needs to appeal to the sort of people who would vote Milei, but pushing too hard to promote a marriage with Milei’s libertarians could lead her to her own irrelevancy. If Massa is able to appeal to Larreta voters and other sectors of the Radical Civic Union and Civic Coalitions without completely aliening Kirchnerism, Bullrich may find herself in the same trap Larreta did, and trying to appeal to moderates and the hard right concurrently could result in the Libertarian turning - Milei has so far excluded her from most of his attacks on the “political caste", if he actually thinks he can win this could change quickly. JxC combined only finished with a 1% advantage over UxP, and for the first round Bullrich has a lower ceiling than Massa if the Milei vote does not collapse, as Larreta votes could bleed to both Massa and the centrist Peronism of Schiaretti. While the revival of Milei as a legitimate political force may help Bullrich as President, it saps any momentum she may have had getting there.
On the other hand, Massa’s primary objective - come in first as a candidate in the primary to show electoral viability may have failed and UxP does not move forward in a position of strength, these results leave him as the most viable anti-Milei option. The Tigre native lacks the personal appeal that Milei or even Bullrich have, but the absence of any other centrist or leftist options to stand out give him room to grow in the place he is most comfortable in, and expect him to aggressively court both Radicals and Federal Peronists - like Bullrich he will have to balance this without losing Kirchnerist voters, but he will have the backing of the ex-president along with the brutal reality that left of center voters have nowhere else to turn to (beside abstentionism, his biggest enemy.)
As a result, if the Milei vote does in fact hold up, Massa may still be favorite to make the runoff. The two problems here is first that these results have empowered Bullrich and Macri to endorse the libertarian in such a scenario (a result that would make Milei overwhelming favorite, but also enable Massa to position himself as President in waiting after the inevitable destruction of the country). Second, Massa remains the Economy Minister, and any chance he has of survival depends on keeping the economy afloat as much as possible, something that will be especially difficult after yesterday.